Chambers Wales South East, South West and Mid is calling for clarity ahead of the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget on 26 November 2025.

Over recent weeks speculation has been rife about potential tax announcements, ranging from income tax increases and national insurance reductions to pension relief changes and higher dividend taxes.

While pre-Budget leaks are nothing new, the level of advance briefing this year appears to have reached new heights. With the government beginning to hint at policy shifts as early as September, businesses across Wales have been left waiting for definitive answers before committing to major decisions or investments. The delay in delivery has only added to the sense of pause. This year’s Autumn Budget is being held a month later than in 2024, leaving many Chamber members in a holding pattern as they wait to see which direction policy will take.

What has been happening locally?

In Wales, attention has already turned to the Welsh Government’s £27bn draft budget, published earlier this month. This included continued funding for key service areas and the £8.4m investment in Creative Wales, including £1.4m to cover non-domestic rates bills for studios. However, businesses remain concerned about the ongoing uncertainty around the Non-Domestic Rates (NDR) reform, particularly as decisions on relief schemes and the multiplier are expected to hinge on outcomes from Westminster.

What can businesses expect from the Autumn Budget?

From conversations with members, the general sentiment is that businesses would rather have clarity, even if that includes some tax rises, than prolonged uncertainty. The key to recovery and growth lies in knowing which way the wind is blowing.

Data from the Chamber’s Quarterly Economic Survey for Q3 found that 51% of Welsh businesses see new markets as an opportunity to recover and grow in the next three months, provided they can move forward with confidence. Persistent worries remain around labour costs, taxation, and inflation, which continue to top the list of external pressures.

It is unlikely that there will be major changes to business taxes like Corporation Tax and VAT as the government is conscious of business confidence, particularly for SMEs. However, lower than projected growth and high projected costs do mean that there will inevitably be tax rises.

Speculation is growing around income tax and national insurance contributions, as well as reforms to pension reliefs and salary sacrifice schemes as the pensions minister is considered a key driving force behind the upcoming Budget. The fiscal black hole can’t just be filled by the government targeting minor taxes, it is likely that major taxes will have to be increased. Even a 1% increase to income tax, across all bands, would move the dial. However, recent headlines suggest the chancellor is now unlikely to proceed with raising income tax rates.

Gus Williams, CEO of Chambers Wales South East, South West and Mid, said:

“Businesses in Wales are ready to get on with it, but the constant speculation and delays around the Budget are creating a drag on investment and decision-making. What we’re hearing from members is clear: certainty matters more than anything. Even if some tax rises are inevitable, knowing what’s coming allows businesses to plan, invest and grow with confidence.

“The government needs to balance its fiscal goals with the need to maintain business confidence. If we want growth, we must create the right conditions for businesses to get on, do business and remain competitive.

“It is important that we are not back here in 12 months time with further speculation and short-term fixes. We need to see certainty in taxation rates in the medium term along with a clear path forward where more complex long-term reform is needed. The economic bottlenecks in Wales centre around the construction sector, energy costs, skills and infrastructure. The hope is that after the Budget the Welsh and UK Governments can focus on these priorities.

“The government have to try and ensure that the budget on 26 November draws a line under the frustrations voiced by business over of the past 12 months.”