Gus Williams, interim CEO at Chambers Wales South East, South West and Mid, said:

“We might be seeing some light at the end of the tunnel this week with the UK-India Trade Agreement, UK-US Trade deal, the Bank of England rate cut and the prospect of an improved UK-EU trading agreement in the next couple of weeks.

“Business investment in the UK has been on hold since the National Insurance (NI) and National Minimum Wage (NMW) increases, a situation exasperated by uncertainty in global trade and declining consumer confidence. In an uncertain world, politically, economically and militarily, the UK economy is beginning to look like a relatively good place to invest – political stability, a strong legal framework, pro-free trade, globally trusted, a strong financial sector, a degree of fiscal stability and a liquid currency.

“The US has historically been the destination of choice for global capital. If some of that capital is now looking for other places to go then the UK is in a strong position to attract it.   NMW and NI increases are now factored into business budgets, and while painful, businesses can start looking forward again.

“The Bank of England is not yet on a full and fast course of reducing rates this year. The Monetary Policy Committee is still split – maybe intentionally so as to not send too strong a signal. However, it does look like the Bank is not hawkishly trying to hit the 2% target any time soon and is adopting a more sensible and looser monetary approach as long as inflation forecasts stay somewhere near the 4% mark and government spending remains constrained. Banks have pent up lending supply which we are seeing in mortgage rates dropping below the base rate. It would be good if we also see banks expanding their small business lending on the back of this increased lending competition.

“Things may not turn overnight, but the spell of good weather and a string of positive moves may begin to nudge Welsh business confidence in the right direction, although farmers may be feeling less optimistic if it doesn’t rain soon.”